Guangzhou Restaurant (603043): The performance is affected by the increase in Q4 expense rate and it is worth looking forward to the expansion and optimization of production capacity

Guangzhou Restaurant (603043): The performance is affected by the increase in Q4 expense rate and it is worth looking forward to the expansion and optimization of production capacity

Event On March 20, 2019, the company released the 2018 performance report, which is expected to achieve revenue of 25 in 2018.

37 ppm, an increase of 15 in ten years.

89%, net profit attributable to mothers3.

82 ppm, an increase of 12 in ten years.

19%.

The preliminary evaluation of the preliminary budget revenue was generally in line with expectations. The fourth quarter performance was affected by the increase in the expense ratio. In the fourth quarter of 2018, the company achieved operating 上海夜网论坛 income5.

23 ppm, an increase of about 4 a year.

8%, mainly because the Mid-Autumn Festival 2017 is October 4, in the fourth quarter, the 2018 Mid-Autumn Festival is September 24, in the third quarter, there is a quarterly misalignment in the Mid-Autumn Festival for two years, and some moon cake income in 2017 was confirmed in Q4,As a result, the growth rate of Q4 in 2018 has improved.

In the ten years of 2018, it achieved revenue of 25.

37 ppm, an increase of 15 in ten years.

89%, basically in line with expectations, maintaining a good growth momentum.

Q4 achieved net profit attributable to mother.

84 million, a decline of about 40 a year.

7%, mainly due to the substantial increase in the expense ratio during Q4, and the increase in expense ratio during Q4 increased by about 13.

4pct, in which sales expenses, management expenses, and R & D expenses change +5 respectively.

6pct, +2.

8pct, +5.

0pct, the level of financial expenses remained flat, and pressure on the expense side of Q4 led to gradual performance that exceeded previous expectations.

Initial gross profit margin is approximately 54.

7%, an increase of about 1 per year.

6 points.

Food business becomes an important engine, and more production lines will break through to maximize production capacity. According to the data of 2018 H1, the company’s food manufacturing business revenue accounted for about 62 of total revenue.

7% is the most important source of revenue for the company.

Among them, the H1 food manufacturing business achieved revenue in 20184.

78 ppm, a year-over-year increase of more than 20%, mainly due to the rapid growth of quick-frozen products and annual products, coupled with the company’s relatively mature mooncake business, which accounted for 41% of the company’s total revenue in 2017. “Mooncake + quick-frozen products” will also become the companyAn important engine for rapid revenue growth in the future.

The company’s current capacity utilization rate is close to 100%, and it is necessary to increase funds to invest in the expansion of production bases in Guangzhou and the construction of production bases in Xiangtan and Meizhou to increase production capacity in order to break through capacity expansion. It is expected to reach usable status in December 2020, andCorresponding income will be generated with the progress of production, which will increase the scale of revenue.

Reasonable and efficient changes in fundraising investment projects, further clarifying the strategic layout On March 11, the company announced an announcement to change some of the fundraising projects, moving the Lamei workshop originally planned to be built in Guangzhou to Meizhou, and the baking workshop originally planned to be built in Guangzhou to Xiangtan.The expansion and reconstruction of Guangzhou base is focused on the frozen food business.

And reduced the 230 directly-operated food retail stores originally planned to be built in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Zhongshan, Dongguan, Zhuhai, etc. to 60 in Guangzhou and 20 in Foshan, and about 86 million yuan was invested to construct XiangtanThe first phase includes production workshops, warehouses and supporting facilities for moon cakes, fillings, etc.

The restaurant construction has also been adjusted accordingly.

After the adjustment of the investment projects, the planned production line division will be more clear, and the number of directly operated retail stores will become more reasonable. As for the distribution speed of the superior product capacity, the company’s capacity release capacity will be stronger in the future, which will greatly benefit the food business engine.

Investment suggestion: The company’s revenue in 2018 is in line with expectations. The expected performance is significantly affected by the increase in Q4 expense ratio and the growth rate is less than expected.Two-wheel drive power remains strong.

It is expected that the EPS for 2019-2020 will be 1.

12.1.

32 yuan, the current expected PE is 30X, 25X, maintaining the “overweight” level.

Risk reminders: The construction of production bases is not up to expectations; new product cultivation is less than expected; food safety issues; and channel expansion is less than expected.